This paper reports on a dynamic modelling framework for ecosystem-based adaptation planning in a SIDSSIDS Small Island Developing States are a distinct group of 38 UN Member States and 20 Non-UN Members/Associate Members of United Nations regional commissions that face unique social, economic and environmental vulnerabilities. island context that is focussed on the assessment of coral reef health and resilience under different climate change scenarios, and the consequential economic and human well-being impacts. Port Resolution, Tanna Island was used as a case study to develop, test and model the fringing coral reef, local community and resultant socio-ecological system.
We developed a dynamic assessment framework to evaluate coral reef conditions under different adaptation and climate change scenarios, and their consequential economic impacts.
Our assessment framework draws upon our previous modelling approaches that deal with the complexity of socio-economic and environmental systems. We incorporated existing data and expert knowledge to project the future conditions, and simulate the dynamic relationship between coral reef condition and the economic benefits derived from ecosystem servicesecosystem services Ecosystem services are the goods and services provided by nature which are experienced as or transformed into benefits for human society. They are generally classed as 'provisioning' (material things that are consumed), 'regulating' (non-material benefits derived from habitat functioning), and 'cultural' (non-material benefits obtained from an experience of nature, including tourism). under different climate change (i.e. RCPsRCPs Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) is a greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions) trajectory adopted by the IPCC. Four pathways were used for climate modeling and research for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report in 2014. The pathways describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on the volume of greenhouse gases emitted in the years to come.) and management scenarios through to 2070.
Our findings show that sustainable community-based conservation management strategies are key to preserving the flow of coral reef ecosystem services under RCPRCP A Representative Concentration Pathway is a greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions) trajectory adopted by the IPCC. Four pathways were used for climate modeling and research for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report in 2014. The pathways describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on the volume of greenhouse gases emitted in the years to come. 2.6 and RCP 6.0. In addition, our model shows that the implementation of an integrated portfolio of management strategies better protects ecosystem services provided by coral reefs and maximises the total economic benefits achieved over the long term despite a temporary and short-term economic loss due to high initial capital investments and income reduction due to fishing and tourism restrictions.
However, sustainable adaptation can only be achieved through firm government and community support.
Our framework presented in this paper provides decision-makers with a powerful modelling tool needed to better understand the impacts of adaptation and management strategies on temporal changes of coral reef cover and the associated economic benefits.
Hafezi, Mehdi, Stewart, R. A., Sahin, O., Giffin, A. L., & Mackey, B. (2021). Evaluating coral reef ecosystem services outcomes from climate change adaptation strategies using integrative system dynamics. Journal of Environmental Management, 285, 112082. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112082
This research project was undertaken as part of the Griffith University Climate Change Response EcoAdapt Project which operates in Vanuatu and Tanna Island under a memorandum of understanding with the Tafea Provincial Government whereby Griffith undertakes research and capacity building to support the Provincial Government's and local communities sustainable development planning, and a permit from the Vanuatu Cultural Centre dated 17 May 2018. The authors are grateful for the support of the Port Resolution community and Tanna Council of Chiefs, and Alan Dan for his key role as project community liaisons and Kastomkastom Kastom is a pidgin word (Bislama/English) used to refer to traditional culture, including religion, economics, art and magic in Melanesia. The word derives from the Australian English pronunciation of 'custom'. Kastom is mostly not written, only passed down through teachings and stories and includes places, stories, objects and animals and plants. advisors. This research was supported in part by a grant from a private charitable trust that wishes to remain anonymous to avoid unsolicited requests. The donor had no input or influence on any aspect of the design, implementation, analyses or documentation of the research reported here. The authors would also like to thank Prof. Rod Connolly for his invaluable supports. In addition, M. Hafezi and A. Giffin are recipients of Australian government postgraduate award stipends.
Request a copy of the article
If the download article link below doesn’t work, or leads to a page that requests payment, please click the link to the author profile above and request a copy directly and they will be happy to assist. Not all reviewed journal articles are published as ‘open access’, which are free to download.