We developed a dynamic assessment framework to evaluate coral reef conditions under different adaptation and climate change scenarios, and their consequential economic impacts.

Our assessment framework draws upon our previous modelling approaches that deal with the complexity of socio-economic and environmental systems. We incorporated existing data and expert knowledge to project the future conditions, and simulate the dynamic relationship between coral reef condition and the economic benefits derived from ecosystem servicesecosystem services Ecosystem services are the goods and services provided by nature which are experienced as or transformed into benefits for human society. They are generally classed as 'provisioning' (material things that are consumed), 'regulating' (non-material benefits derived from habitat functioning), and 'cultural' (non-material benefits obtained from an experience of nature, including tourism). under different climate change (i.e. RCPsRCPs Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) is a greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions) trajectory adopted by the IPCC. Four pathways were used for climate modeling and research for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report in 2014. The pathways describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on the volume of greenhouse gases emitted in the years to come.) and management scenarios through to 2070.

Our findings show that sustainable community-based conservation management strategies are key to preserving the flow of coral reef ecosystem services under RCPRCP A Representative Concentration Pathway is a greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions) trajectory adopted by the IPCC. Four pathways were used for climate modeling and research for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report in 2014. The pathways describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on the volume of greenhouse gases emitted in the years to come. 2.6 and RCP 6.0. In addition, our model shows that the implementation of an integrated portfolio of management strategies better protects ecosystem services provided by coral reefs and maximises the total economic benefits achieved over the long term despite a temporary and short-term economic loss due to high initial capital investments and income reduction due to fishing and tourism restrictions.

However, sustainable adaptation can only be achieved through firm government and community support.

Our framework presented in this paper provides decision-makers with a powerful modelling tool needed to better understand the impacts of adaptation and management strategies on temporal changes of coral reef cover and the associated economic benefits.